Lineup Performance: Missouri vs. Vanderbilt

With only two minutes left in the first half, Marques Warrick slowly trailed Josh Gray as the big man graded a path to the rim. 

When Warrick’s floater dropped, Missouri had stretched its lead to 41-25 and put Vanderbilt on the brink. Instead of cooly dispatching the visiting Commodores, the Tigers began settling for jumpers while Vandy deftly exploited switches on the other end. When M.J. Collins watched a 3-ball ripple the net, VU pulled to within nine just before the break.

That was the recurring theme throughout Saturday: MU steadily worked through productive half-court sets to push its lead into double figures before VU reeled the Tigers back in. 

After parsing the substitution pattern, there’s not much you can quibble over – at least in the first half. After halftime, you can see a malaise crept in, but that likely has more to do with specific personnel slumping than Gates’ management. 

Look at the Vandy spurt midway through the first half, when Jason Edwards popped off an 8-0 spurt. You can trace his surge to several snafus by Tamar Bates: a lazy ball reversal that Edwards swiped for a runout, a blown switch with Aidan Shaw that gave Edwards a crease to drive for a 3-point play, and a failure to find Edwards in transition for a trail 3. 

Once Gates sat Bates and Shaw, MU promptly found its rhythm and rebuilt a 17-point edge into the final 3:18 of the half. That’s about the time you saw lineups that cracked the door open. From my seat, those groupings featured guards far more inclined to spot-up than drive the ball. Case in point: Warrick’s layup was the sole downhill play during that stretch. 

Defensively, Vandy’s offense created problematic switches that put the Tigers in a bind. First, Hoggard rejected a high ball screen and blew by Josh Gray in drop coverage, forcing Warrick to rotate over and commit a foul while trying to contest at the rim. The next trip down, an aggressive slip to the rim by Devin McGlockton prompted Anthony Robinson to scramble over for a tag — and let MJ Collins alone in the slot for an open 3. 

Yet the Tigers’ picked up the beat again out of the locker room using continuity ball screens to isolate mismatches. When Vandy found success, it was often the byproduct of an individual breakdown by MU more than a problematic lineup.

So, how did Vandy chop the lead down? 

Well, it began with a couple of breakdowns in transition defense that gifted the ‘Dores a modest 4-0 spurt. But then Robinson got swiped in the face while defending a drive, and the Tigers gave Warrick a chance to run the point. Instead, the offense stalled. That prompted Gates to swap in Tony Perkins, who was still under the weather. He promptly turned the ball over when a reversal to Bates sailed out of bounds.

Then, Jaley Carey, who entered shooting 17 percent from 3-point range, buried a jumper from a pick-and-pop to cut the lead to 49-46. 

Without Robinson running the point, the Tigers’ lineups lacked enough on-ball creativity to give their base sets some verve. Meanwhile, Gates lifted Mitchell for a breather and sent Pierce back on the floor. Yet, the sophomore hasn’t received steady reps in Mitchell’s usual station at the elbow in delay sets. 

Meanwhile, it was tough sledding most of the day for Bates, who finished with a skimpy 12.8 percent usage rate. The junior hit a couple of threes and scored on a runout dunk late in the second half, but he was absent as a threat around the rim. Hoggard stripped him on a drive with 7:08 to play, and on the next possession, he made a curious choice to feed Gray on a short roll that resulted in a turnover. 

If Perkins and Bates had played closer to their respective baselines, some of these lineups wouldn’t have looked so sluggish. But on Saturday, they proved more problematic than usual. You can see that below. 

The groups prominently featuring two of Robinson, Grill and Mitchell tend to do well in roughly 20 minutes of action. Notably, the Tigers’ starting five performed well (+7) on the heels of another quality outing (+9) last Tuesday against LSU. If it was simply an off day for Perkins and Bates, it’s easier to live with some of the struggles reflected lower down the chart. 

Again, the scoring margin is a team stat, and Caleb Grill reinforces that notion. The graduate senior’s game score (16.29) put him in the trifecta for the day, and he overcame an uneven start from deep to finish with 13 points, five boards, and a couple of steals. Unfortunately, Grill was also on the court when Edwards went on his jag and during the Commodores’ run to close the half. Take out those three minutes, and he finishes at plus-2 for his time on the wing.

Conversely, Bates finished at plus-16 on the wing despite struggling to get scoring traction and some defensive miscues. 

Unsurprisingly, Mitchell and Robinson come off well in this table. Had Pierce avoided a couple of turnovers, his efficiency and game score figures might have better aligned with the plus-16 figure for the 24 minutes he spent manning the four-spot. 

Gates also kept his bench relatively short for this outing. Jacob Crews only saw light duty before the break. The same was true for Shaw’s cameo before the under-8 timeout in the first half. And Marcus Allen spent the afternoon as an observer. That trio also saw just 15 minutes combined against LSU. 

Will Gates continue to keep his rotation limited to nine or 10 bodies? We’ll see. Doing so makes it easier to avoid combinations featuring low-usage players on offense. Still, it also hinges on Perkins and Bates making their usual contributions.