Lineup Performance: Missouri vs. Eastern Washington

Once the horn sounds, I go into an Excel file and produce three charts: a substitution pattern, lineup breakdowns and position performance. Collectively, they quantify game flow and give me context for how Missouri’s players performed at various spots. In past seasons, I’ve shared them on Slack with Sam Snelling and Matt Watkins, and sometimes, they help Sam while he’s cranking out Study Hall. Now, you get to see them in cleaned-up form. 

What’s the objective of a buy game? 

For some programs, it’s pragmatic: running up a considerable margin of victory to juice their NET rating. At other places, they’re a way to ease a relatively young roster into life at the collegiate level. Then there’s Missouri, which views them as 40-minute sessions in a crash lab testing the durability of lineups and operability of schemes.

Sure, you might get some scratches. You might break some pricey equipment. And you fray some nerves. But ideally, you leave with proof of a hypothesis. Unless Jackson State is involved. 

Based on minutes distributions and how aggressively MU dials up pressure, we’ve seen enough of Dennis Gates to reasonably infer that’s his approach. It means lineup data and film should be treated like time spent with the NTSB as it does crash-safety testing.

This awareness, however, doesn’t mean your blood pressure won’t spike – like on Monday against Eastern Washington. 

Let’s start with the substitution pattern. MU trotted out Annor Boateng on the wing and swapped in Tony Perkins at lead guard. Around the under-16 timeout, Gates subbed in a second ball-handler and went small at the five. That’s pretty routine through three games. 

But then he started experimenting. He made sure Peyton Marshall saw four minutes of run and then reverted to small-ball lineups again with different guard pairings. He sprinkled in some time for Jacob Crews and Marcus Allen at the four. 

After the interval, Gates kept Caleb Grill, the night’s hot hand, on the floor for most of the second half while giving Perkins and Anthony Robinson extended time together. That decision meant clipping Marques Warrick’s minutes. Midway through the second half, he used traditional big men for a couple of minutes as anchors for a 3-2 zone. 

Offensively, it didn’t do much to dent MU’s efficiency, although the Tigers were still at their best when pushing the ball on secondary breaks or attacking early in the shot clock. Now, EWU’s zone did cause some problems, particularly late in the first half. It’s why a lineup of Robison, Warrick, Grill, Allen and Shaw finished with a minus-5 margin. 

Sometimes, there are complaints that Gates sub pattern doesn’t allow players or lineups enough leeway to get in a flow. But against EWU, he pared back the number of groups he used. Seven groups spent more than three minutes together on the floor, including two approaching four minutes.

There’s no sugar-coating the brutal performance (-8) for MU’s starting five. Yet Gates’ subs at the 16:19 mark introduced a lineup that was plus-10 over the next 3:50 of action to overcome an early eight-point deficit. Otherwise, it was a pedestrian night. 

So, why have I highlighted lineups featuring Josh Gray? Well, his minus-17 in the box score jumps out. The big man was part of the starting five that started slowly, and another group gave up a 5-0 spurt in 86 seconds during the second half. 

But this is why you return to the film: the guilt doesn’t rest with him. Instead, the responsibility rests at the feet of perimeter players who were awful defensively. I’ll probably detail those breakdowns elsewhere, but Gray only had one obvious miscue when he bit on a pump fake and gave up a 3-point play to Tyler Powell. You can say the same about Peyton Marshall, who had one glaring mistake in the first half.

As the horn sounded, it was worth musing whether Gates’ choice to play zone with those two at the back had been an issue. It turns out that the answer is probably not. And what about the freshmen? I counted up four defensive breakdowns.

Put simply, testing out ideas didn’t compromise defensive rigidity. Instead, the explanation is more straightforward: vets weren’t engaged. Although, I don’t think that causes any sighs of relief. 

It also helps apply the appropriate lens to view position performance.

Gray’s minus-18 is the cross he bears for the sins of his teammates. Annor Boateng’s time with a passive starting five sunk his rating. And we already noted that Warrick happened to be on the floor when a zone stymied the Tigers. 

Meanwhile, any Tiger with a gaudier margin was likely on the floor in the middle of the first half during a 31-8 stretch over 10 minutes. Those minutes built up a surplus for the leakage that occurred after halftime. However, they likely owe a thanks to Grill, whose ridiculous game score (37.24) highlights, bolds and underlines just how vital his 33-point breakout was on the night.

The sixth-year senior’s shooting gave cover for his teammates mistakes — and enough latitude for his coach to keep exploring what his roster has to offer.