The Verdict Previews: Solving The Roster Riddle

Welcome everyone to The Verdict, Preseason Edition.  In this series we’re going to be looking at a host of topics in the lead up to the much anticipated 26-27 Tigers Basketball season.  Instead of going through the nitty-gritty of every single player as I’ve done in past Player Previews, I’m taking a bit of a step back and looking at some larger scale topics for Mizzou’s team. In this installment we’re going to be looking at Mizzou’s backcourt situation. We’re assuming every fifth year senior is eligible for the purpose of simplicity. 

The common refrain when talking about question marks for Mizzou Basketball’s anticipated season often revolves around guard play.  I am a member of that chorus as are my colleagues here at RockM+.  It’s not JUST about Mizzou’s backcourt, mind you. When you look at this roster from ten thousand feet you get a feeling that Mizzou is brimming at the gills with wings and power forwards.  Where is everyone else you may ask? How will Mizzou realize their high level of potential with such an unbalanced roster in a traditional sense? Can this work? We’re going to dive into those concerns and more today. 

The historical context is important.  In summer of 2025 Dennis Gates pulled a stunner of a recruiting haul in landing top 10 prospect Jason Crowe.  California’s all-time leading scorer pledged his commitment to Mizzou and never waivered since.  Sure, Mizzou’s head coach having a history with Crowe’s father – and now Mizzou assistant coach – Jason Crowe, Sr., had something to do with it.  I think it was less the connection between the two men and more the pitch that was made in securing his son’s services.

Jason Crowe, Jr., is Mizzou’s point guard for the upcoming season. And the safety net is gone.  The reason for this bold strategy is somewhat simple.  Crowe is seen as a volatile prospect in NBA circles. He’s an absolute scoring machine from the floor which no one will contest. Yet standing at a generously posted six-feet four-inches, Crowe lacks the size of a guaranteed one-and-done lottery pick. Volume scoring shooting guards with that build aren’t a luxury item for NBA teams. But dudes with that expansive scoring bag AND a point guard’s skill set absolutely are. To this point in his career Crowe has not solidified the latter. Enter, Dennis Gates’ pitch.

We’ve now observed three rounds of roster-building opportunities since Crowe signed on to be a Tiger. Mizzou’s high school class featured a talented power forward and underrated wing.  Their portal class this spring featured Border War turncoat big man, a bruising forward from Tennessee and four wings that have at some point been tabbed as options as combo guards.  Then there was the do-over portion of the portal cycle where fifth year players suddenly became eligible. Mizzou managed to land the services of a former All-SEC forward and volume scoring wing.  Their returning contingent of six players offers just a single guy – redshirt freshman Aaron Rowe – who could remotely be considered a lead guard. If my musing back in April that Dennis Gates was building this team for Jason Crowe to be the dude at point guard wasn’t convincing then, you’re whistling into the dark if you don’t see it now. 

Now, there are worse things than letting a five-star freshman have the reigns at the primary guard spot. SEC teams in recent years have been successful in doing so. Several of those teams saw said players get picked up by NBA clubs the following summer.  That historical data point doesn’t calm our nerves on this issue though.  To address those collective shaky hands, I’ve put together the following.

This is a lot to take in, so allow me to explain.  Hoop Explorer offers a very useful tool that’s called a player’s “positional confidence.”  That is, using the traditional positional designations, one through five, how “confident” is a player’s statistical background in allowing him to play said spot. While it’s not a perfect analysis, I find it more persuasive than calling a dude a five man just because he’s tall.  This isn’t really a “where he played,” thing but rather a “how he operated,” thing.  Mark Mitchell provides a prime example right off the bat.  I think most of us would be comfortable in calling him a power forward, no?  Well, the WAY he played last year was essentially that of a combo guard or wing.  He operated primarily on the perimeter, attacking out of spot-up chances and isolations. His assist to turnover rates (included in the chart) were solid for a shooting guard. The analysis continues on down the spectrum. Where SHOULD this guy play?

The bottom line “current sum minutes” is based on this positional confidence weighted by how many minutes I project said players to play.  The result shows you that Mizzou’s got a lot of minutes surplus at the combo guard and wing positions, which shouldn’t come as a surprise.  Likewise their power forward situation is well covered even with Mitchell’s “wing stats,” taking him largely out of play.  Using a generous 75% point-guard confidence for Jason Crowe – again, based on similar player comps from years past – Mizzou’s point guard minutes are simply lacking though not in a truly offensive nature.  Finally, despite the mass of size Dennis Gates has accumulated, few guys have truly played like a five man. 

As always, when I find something that Dennis Gates is doing that seems unusual on the surface, I ask myself: “Is this something that Leonard Hamilton’s teams did?”  Well, as so often is the case, yes, it is.  Mizzou’s head coach directly admitted as much when speaking to the SEC writers at the league’s Media Day this week.  The chart below is the exact same process with arguably the best team Hamilton assembled in Tallahassee. 

I won’t belabor the point with a recitation of the chart.  Needless to say, the same “positional confidence” minutes breakdown emerges.  In what’s nearly a mirror image, a minutes deficit materialized at the point guard and big man spots while an incredible excess of minutes emerged at the combo guard and wing positions.  Despite this rather unusual alignment he made it work to the tune of a 26-5 record and an ACC championship banner to boot.  Unfortunately for him and Seminole nation, a global pandemic banged tournament play. One of the bigger “what-ifs” in recent hoops memory. 

Outside of the position issues I’ve included the assist and turnover numbers for a reason.  You’ll see in Mizzou’s chart that outside of Mark Mitchell there just isn’t a lot of proven distribution on this squad.  You hope that Jason Crowe is able to turn that around, both for the team and for his NBA prospects. On paper, it’s light.  Unsurprisingly, Hamilton’s 2020 squad suffered the same issue. 

Turning our attention to last year’s top 25, were other teams able to be successful without obvious high-level distributors running the show?

Credit to those of you still with me.  This has been an avalanche of numbers. I find this to be an important conversation for this team!

We can identify about four teams who were “elite” a year ago despite similar distribution circumstances.  Arizona (8^th in overall offense), Florida (10^th), Illinois (2^nd) and St. John’s (33^rd).  The common theme? These teams were all massive in size, they defended well and they were competent if not elite in distributing and protecting the ball as a team.  Each of those four schools had at least two options with a plus assist % to turnover % ratio.  Illinois barely missed making it a clean sweep.  The point being here is that teams build in this manner can win without the services of an elite set-up man at point guard IF you have solid work across the board. Everyone needs to chip in with their fair share of ball security and sound decision making. 

In one of the more unexpected turns of the whole saga, Mark Mitchell’s appearance in Mizzou’s Student Database after a hot date with a league foe helped solve this issue more than any other. An improved focus from Crowe’s spot on the floor could theoretically give Mizzou two quality options in the ball control spectrum.  Only needing one additional player to crawl above average – while the remainder simply needs to avoid cratering it – is a relatively small ask.  Jaylen Carey has proven his passing chops in recent years.  Kennard Davis posted a 14.5%:16.9% ratio two years ago at Southern Illinois.  Aaron Rowe emerging as a viable option off the bench could almost certainly solve the issue.  The answers are at least easily imaginable, if not assured.

We won’t know how all of this ultimately shakes out until we see the team that’s on the court.  A deep roster of new additions with talent will take work to integrate. What we do know is that it can work assuming certain conditions are met. If anything, that should allow some comfort for Mizzou faithful going into such an anticipated season.