Almost everyone knows the aphorism that the victors write history.
Yet in the aftermath of Missouri’s 73-68 victory at Kentucky, those words of questionable provenance didn’t seem to apply to the Tigers. Instead, national voices framed the upset through a royal blue lens: How could the Wildcats botch an eight-point lead with four minutes to go?
Take Rob Dauster, co-founder of The Field of 68, who said UK made “like nine crucial mistakes in a row.”
Yes, Kentucky was imperfect in ceding a 15-2 closing run, but the tenor of the discussion and evaluation framed MU as a bystander, a fortunate beneficiary of Mark Pope’s emerging incompetence.
No, MU wasn’t flawless. The Tigers were wiped out in transition. They racked up fouls early in the second half, helping UK win the free-throw battle and ushering in rotational changes, like inserting Nicholas Randall. There were questionable turnovers in transition by Anthony Robinson II and in the half-court by T.O. Barrett.
Yet, that’s the nature of life on the road in a high-major conference – overcoming imperfections to grind out a result. And when we look back at MU’s sub pattern, we don’t see UK in control for long stretches. Instead, the ‘Cats asserted themselves during an 11-0 run spanning halftime, followed by short bursts of competence.
What I find most bothersome is the notion that UK’s errors in the home stretch – like pull-ups by Jaland Lowe or a turnover by Malachi Moreno — were simply matters of execution. They weren’t. Instead, they were manifestations of MU’s scouting report ruthlessly accentuating Kentucky’s weaknesses.
Consider this: Kentucky only averaged 0.772 points per possession in the half-court, including 0.467 PPP in pick-and-rolls and 0.571 PPP trying to feed rollers. For the night, UK only squeezed out a meager 0.444 PPP on rim attempts against set five.
Take pick-and-roll defense, for example. From the opening tip, the Tigers executed push coverage exceptionally, with an on-ball defender forcing Lowe, Denzel Aberdeen, or Otega Oweh over a screen toward a big playing one step below the play. That trio routinely opted for low-value pull-ups or contested floaters.
None of those handlers are reliable playmakers, but members of the Tigers’ frontcourt consistently applied tags, recovered on time to the paint, or walled up against delayed cuts by screeners.
Struggles to generate any return in ball screens forced Pope to pivot toward generating rim attempts out of post-ups. But that’s not exactly the strong suit for any Wildcat, and it was compounded by the Tigers – especially Trent Pierce – using their length to deflect entry passes, strip the ball, or, at worst, play with verticality.
In terms of shot quality, which accounts for play type, time, and location on the floor, the Wildcats only mustered seven attempts in the half-court that would have ranked in the 80th percentile, per Synergy Sports. How many of them came after one halftime? One. With 10 minutes to go.
It’s why the game thread on our board percolated with frustration. The Wildcats’ only route to efficient offense came on the break. Simultaneously, the Tigers whiffed at cashing in on similar gifts bestowed by Pope’s crew.
But once MU tightened up its handle and stopped settling for quick jumpers, the Tigers twisted the spigot and cut off the flow. That moment arrived right after the Wildcats extended their lead to 66-58 with 4:34 to go.
MU’s surge didn’t require a major schematic shift. The Tigers kept running familiar favorites with the right personnel on the floor to make them click. The pick-and-roll actions that teed up a Jayden Stone three-pointer, a lob dunk for Shawn Phillips Jr., and Mark Mitchell’s go-ahead floater are staples in the playbook. They also exploited UK’s issues in screening communications and inflicted additional stress by the spacing threats that Stone and Pierce pose off the ball.
Put simply, MU ran the sets it wanted, created the matchups it coveted, and converted the quality shots that those actions generated. More bluntly, MU executed. UK didn’t. And that’s how you overcome imperfections to dig out results away from your home building in a game that was mostly even.
Lineup performance reinforces that takeaway. The worst combinations featured Randall at the five, but that wasn’t entirely by design. For example, the Vashon product found himself pressed into duty to keep Phillips from fouling out. That required some tradeoffs offensively, including Randall missing a layup on a secondary break and getting whistled for an illegal screen.
Strip out those seven minutes, however, and MU’s scoring margin is a comfortable plus-14. Deploying other reserves didn’t come with a toll, either.
That’s backed by an assessment of positional performance, showing Randall’s struggles (-9) and an off night for Jacob Crews (-5) after a stellar performance against Florida. But that was countered by Shawn Phillips posting a second consecutive positive scoring margin. It’s also a nice proxy for Pierce’s impact defensively and on the glass.
While MU’s only been at full strength for two games, it’s reassuring to see the Tigers’ team defense carrying out scouts. Against Florida, that meant staying disciplined in zone looks that took away easy entry passes to the nail and baited the Gators into jacking up threes. Similar discipline and communication were required to accentuate UK’s flaws. The question now is whether it proves durable for the remainder of SEC action.
Offensively, we might have to recalibrate our expectations. Sebastian Mack, who did not play, occupies a reduced role. Neither appear Barrett nor Boateng seem poised for major leaps. And the Tigers’ revival has coincided with Phillips seeing his touches curbed. Unfortunately, that foists more responsibility on Robinson, Mitchell, Crews and Stone. For the Tigers to reach their ceiling, some complementary role players need to emerge.
Perhaps there’s an equally compelling counternarrative from Wednesday night: MU sorting out its identity against a blue blood bereft of one.
Yes, Kentucky made mistakes, but they weren’t random. They were partially a byproduct of a gameplan MU spent 36 minutes executing. The Tigers dictated where shots came from and who took them. That’s competent execution. And when the Tigers needed buckets, they leaned on staples.
And should MU keep pairing up disciplined defense and sets that let their players breathe, these nights won’t be framed as outliers or anomalies.
They’ll be belated proof of concept.