Lineup Performance: Missouri vs. UAPB

Dennis Gates deserves credit. With 15 players on scholarship, the Missouri coach faced the temptation to roll bodies through his rotation non-stop, exploring abundant options but winnowing in on none. Instead, he’s shown restraint. On Sunday, though, the Tigers’ 112-53 rout of UAPB saw him relent to impulse. 

How do we know?

Sixteen Tigers saw action. You can only have 15 players in the scorebook. But that sin can be forgiven when trying to slip 55 seconds of PT to Jeremy Sanchez. 

However, one trend remains persistent: sluggish starts giving way to separation once the substitution pattern – bulging or not – reaches small-ball lineups. Once that happens, opponents tend to succumb to MU’s depth. And finally, garbage time arrives just before the first media timeout in the second half. 

Not that MU wasn’t committed to playing fast from the jump. 

The Tigers ran a Horns set on their opening possession, but after that, seven of its next eight trips unfolded in transition. The result was settling, usually for a corner or wing 3-pointer after a hit-ahead or one-ball reversal. 

It took until the 8:10 mark for the Tigers to start mounting a 15-0 kill shot of a run, which whirred to life when Mark Mitchell checked in for Josh Gray. 

With the junior on the floor, ball pressure ramped up, UAPB’s offense got pushed out, and the Golden Lions started launching from deep. Their misses helped jumpstart the Tigers’ secondary break, including a hit-ahead to Mitchell that capped the run at 39-18 with 4:10 left until the break. 

And just to be safe, the Tigers popped off another 8-0 spurt after Marcus Allen subbed in for Mitchell while Aidan Shaw manned the post. Consider this factoid: MU didn’t use a traditional post player for nearly 19 minutes in the middle of the game. When they did, it was Peyton Marshall trotting to the scorer’s table with MU up by 50 points. Over that stretch, the Tigers outscored UAPB by 44 points. 

Unsurprisingly, the top lineup was the one who blew the game open in the first half. Farther down, you’ll see the lineup that put together the other run. But thirteen featured a small-ball five out of the 19 lineups that logged more than a minute. 

And as you can see in position performance, the roughly 15 minutes logged by Shaw resulted in the best scoring margin (+23) among the Tigers’ bigs. Gray’s eight minutes weren’t a horror show (+6 margin), while his game score (2.09) was modest because he didn’t find the scoring column. 

Meanwhile, Anthony Robinson II, Tamar Bates, and Caleb Grill were exceptional in their usual positional slots – albeit with fewer minutes. Mitchell hit 20 points and made an impact at the hybrid (+15) and post (+17) positions for the Tigers. And in his return, Tony put together a solid 13 minutes doing what he does best: drawing fouls, harassing dribblers, and making timely passes. 

Still, there’s the lingering question: Will MU experiment with starting a game using a small-ball five?

On paper, these lineups have most held up their end of the bargain, as you can see in the table below. It’s also easy to explain the performance of the two weakest quintets: the bulk of their minutes together came on opening night in the Bluff City. The other eight combinations have bellied up and filled their plates at the buy-game buffet.

And the premise isn’t without drawbacks, either. 

When Mitchell slides down to play small-ball five, he needs operating room around the elbow to make clean catches. Now, MU’s already shifted play-calling to help him out. Still, it also matters who is around him. Suppose Crews is on the floor. His presence, particularly in the corner, is meant to put a help defender in a bind. If he rotates to cut Mitchell off on a rim attack, Crews is open for a catch-and-shoot. The same can be said of Trent Pierce. But those two are just 8 of 34 from 3-point range through six games, posing little threat. And Marcus Allen? He’s only launched one 3-ball all season. 

The issue persists if Mitchell remains at the four-spot while Shaw mans the post. Put simply, the Tigers might not impose a punitive enough tax for defenses rolling more body Mithcell’s way. During this soft stretch of games, the Tigers’ depth and overwhelming talent advantage mask that potential issue. That shroud is removed once MU hosts Kansas or treks to face Illinois in St. Louis. 

Still, if there’s a time to test drive that idea, it’s when the win probabilities are decisively in your favor.