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Lineup Performance: Missouri vs. Kansas

When Missouri came close to polishing off a six-pack of buy games, we started musing about whether the Tigers’ rotation might see some tightening.

Well, the pruning coincided with Kansas pulling into Columbia for Border War. 

Coach Dennis Gates traded Tony Perkins for Annor Boateng among his starting five. That adjustment wasn’t jarring. However, playing each member for almost 30 minutes was unexpected. Forget tinkering. MU stripped its substitution pattern to the studs to secure a 76-67 upset over the then-No. 1 Jayhawks.

For the first time this season, MU deployed a genuinely cyclical approach. The Tigers’ starts logged almost seven minutes to start each half before Gates used staggered swaps to give breaks. By the under-8 timeout, the starters were back and, ideally, rested for the stretch run.

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The results, however, were split. 

During the first half, the Tigers’ reserves didn’t precisely click offensively. But they still applied enough ball pressure – coupled with KU’s general sloppiness – that the Jayhawks squandered possessions. Then, over the final four minutes, MU stretched its lead modestly to 39-25 at the break. 

Out of the locker room, MU’s starting guards, paced by 29 points from Tamar Bates, again punished KU’s perimeter defenders at the point of attack. The lead peaked at 57-33 on Tony Bates’ tough floater after getting downhill from a drag pick-and-roll with 14:19 remaining. About a minute later, Marques Warrick checked in for Perkins, and Gates began dispensing breaks. 

That’s when KU made its move. 

To be very clear, the Jayhawks’ 15-0 run unfolded at a snail’s pace of roughly five minutes. The Tigers had seven possessions to thwart it, and the likes of Bates and Anthony Robinson – prime on-ball creators – were still on the floor in its earliest stages. 

Bill Self also happens to be very good at coaching. Around the time Gates began making subs, KU switched up pick-and-roll coverages. They started hard-hedging side ball screens involving Robinson while tasking Hunter Dickinson to string out Tamar Bates in high PNRs. On trips where Bates tried to sprint off pin downs, AJ Storr occasionally got topside and redirected the senior from using screens. 

The result: MU began settling for jumpers. 

Meanwhile, MU had inserted Aidan Shaw and Peyton Marshall, trying to use the latter as a reader at the elbow in triangle-based sets. Marshall sometimes struggled to be strong with the ball in the face of Dickinson’s harassment while KU’s guards blew up handoffs. Unsurprisingly, the ball stopped, the shot clock dwindled, and MU relied on late-clock ISOs. 

As for the Jayhawks, handles tightened up and steadily capitalized on some breakdowns by MU: failing to tag a roller, a blown off-ball switch, a late recovery to a shooter at the elbow, and sluggish transition defense. 

Put simply, MU turned to its bench, and KU did what good teams do – exploited the drop-off. However, KU’s second spurt, a 12-5 spell over three minutes, to pull within a bucket came four of five starters on the court. Three breakdowns land in the lap of those lodestars, and it’s why you can be exultant that MU won but also leave thinking they could have played cleaner. 

Naturally, MU’s approach on Sunday meant the minutes distribution skews heavily toward Gates’ starters. That quintet had not played together all year. By the time fans stormed the court, it was tops among 181 lineups used this season in floor time. It won the game, while the Tigers’ reserve corps fought KU to a draw.

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The table reflects how badly Gates and his staff coveted this result. Last season, injuries made these kinds of playing loads inevitable. This weekend, though, Caleb Grill was the only headliner out of commission. The only limit was Gates’ creativity. But MU didn’t get cute or think outside the box. 

Naturally, the allocation of minutes is extreme. 

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Chopping down the rotation led to Annor Boateng and Jacob Crews earning DNPs. Aidan Shaw was the sole bench player to log more than 10 minutes of action, while Marques Warrick came close to nine minutes. Otherwise, back-ups were lucky to get five minutes of run. Eleven bodies saw time, but functionally, Gates deployed a seven-man rotation.

Among the Tigers’ starters, it’s easy to explain lags for Mark Mitchell and Josh Gray: they were on the floor as KU capped its first run and for its second spurt. That’s not necessarily a direct reflection of their efforts. Gray quietly posted a quality game score (10.84) by snagging 10 rebounds and displacing Dickinson on the block. Mitchell’s rim finishing again left something to be desired, but he went 8 of 12 at the line, chipped in four blocks and swatted three shots. 

Bates’ performance powered the Tigers’ offensively, while Robinson colored in other areas of the box score with four boards, three assists, and five steals. And together, they embodied the Tigers’ clear intent to make KU’s guards “feel” the Tigers at both ends of the floor. 

Sure, the bench proved sedate, but we’ve seen Warrick offer some scoring punch and Shaw some rim protection. Gates also sometimes turned to his freshmen to handle some stout defensive assignments. He used Allen as a bigger on-ball defender against Dajuan Harris and later tasked T.O. Barrett with tracking David Coit, who heated up in the second half. 

I doubt Gates takes a similar tack against Long Island and Jacksonville State, which will likely be Petri dishes to sort out his deep-bench options on the wing and at the four-spot. Yet Sunday boldly underlined who Gates will likely rely on when the stakes are elevated.

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RockM+ Wizard

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Scoring a marquee upset against the top-ranked Jayhawks meant the Tigers stripped their rotation down and leaned on top options.

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k
kc_tiger14

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87 messages 4 likes

It will be interesting to see how Gates spreads the minutes out when conference play rolls along. Will he lean so hard on his starting five like he did against kansas? How many minutes will Grill get coming off the bench? Will Boateng be able to get some playing time later in the year? I think we know who the core is and we saw that minus Grill on Sunday, but still plenty of questions to answer.

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datamizzou

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I'm going to guess it looks awfully similar to the minutes projections I laid out preseason. At least in terms of minute distribution. I'm already resigned to a few clear misses on the guys who are actually getting those minutes!

When you've got a week layoff between games, and you REALLY want to push your guys for the W, you can go with 5 guys getting 30+ minutes. I don't believe that will be sustainable. Playing an aggressive man to man (and running offensively) is hard. You began to see that with Tony and Ant both cramping up in the second half.

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r
rew5

Freshman

88 messages 30 likes

Great stuff.
I've definitely been one of the posters here hoping to see Gates play "what works" before spending so much time in the lab. But clearly he knew what he was doing, and as one of you guys mentioned, he might not have wanted to give Self any film of that 5 together before Sunday. They were very good, and I would think only look to get better as Perkins gets healthier and Grill returns to be the super 6 (or Perkins, either is fine in that role). I do think it would be a mistake to move Robinson to the "first off the bench" role. He's needed to be a tone setter defensively. The dude is the identity of the team.
I'll be intrigued to watch the development at the 5. How many teams will we play where Gray is needed to play heavy minutes like that? Will we be able to flash a "small lineup" that's equally as effective as the 5 that wrestled ku to a win? That might be key to get that lock number of wins (probably 10?) in the SEC.
Back to the lab!

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datamizzou

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One thing I'll be interested to see is vs. Illinois. On paper Gray doesn't make much sense in that lineup considering Illinois' roster. Does Dennis deviate heavily from Sunday's rotation in order to "best fit," the matchup? Or is he more set on playing to his strengths?

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J
Jamborewe

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75 messages 19 likes

No question, their style of play would benefit from deeper rotation if possible.

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Matthew Harris

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Once we get through the Long Island game, I’ll probably do an overview piece about the rotation. Ten games is a pretty decent sample size.

Like Watkins said, my hunch is they could go a bit smaller against Illinois. Ivisic wants to space out a bit more. When Morez Johnson checks in, you can use Gray or Marshall. The question will be whether MU wants mobility or to force Ivisic to deal with physical defense, something that’s bothered him at certain times.

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