Lineup Performance: Missouri vs. Illinois

A lone thought passed through my brain as Kasparas Jakucionis’ go-ahead jumper splashed through with 29.4 seconds left on Sunday.

That dude.

My opinion didn’t evolve on Monday when I rewatched the Missouri’s 80-77 loss to Illinois. Mark Mitchell sat down, stayed in front and cut off the Illini point guard’s attack angle. When the freshman reverse pivoted into a fadeaway, Mitchell ably contested. Didn’t matter. It still found the bottom of the bucket. 

And sometimes, no complex analysis or detailed explanation is required.

The Illini needed a play. Jakucionis delivered. And that’s what decided this edition of Braggin’ Rights, where the Tigers’ and Illini each made the other capitulate to their will in various phases of the game. That’s what crafted high drama inside the Enterprise Center before a split crowd. 

Upon parsing the lineup data and the film, you can’t easily trace the outcome back to one cause. The substitution pattern reflects that reality. 

In so many ways, shot selection defined the day. MU relied on Mark Mitchell to attack from the elbow and on empty-side pick-and-rolls. And while the Tigers prevented Jakucionis from carving them up in pick-and-rolls, the Illini still attempted more than half their shots from behind the arc. It meant Mitchell punished Ben Humrichous one-on-one early on while the Illini answered with guarded 3s. 

If you need an inflection point, focus on the span between the 14:41 and 13:03 marks of the second half. Coach Dennis Gates rode with a pair of freshmen in Marcus Allen and Peyton Marshall as his front court. During this spell, the Tigers tried to play through them on the low block, aiming to run the foul count up on Humrichous and Tomislav Ivisic. 

Those possessions came up empty. 

Meanwhile, MU’s defensive focus lapsed. A poor job in ball-screen coverage allowed Kylan Boswell to draw a foul on Marshall, earning him freebies. Allen and Tamar Bates watched a baseline drive unfold – and didn’t Jakucionis split them with a dive cut to the rim. To cap it off, the Illini beat the Tigers down the floor after Marshall missed a putback, a secondary break that ended with a Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn layup. 

That flurry pushed the Illini’s edge to 51-44 with 13:08 to go. 

Why focus on this stretch? I mean, would MU trim the margin back down to a bucket a few minutes later? Again, shot selection.

Post-ups are inefficient rim attempts, and the Illini only allow 0.396 points per touch on the block. Meanwhile, the Tigers’ volume of 3-point attempts was anemic. Using a post-up isn’t a bad way to draw help, but spraying passes out and playing off the kick might have yielded a higher value shot. 

Matt Watkins uses an apt analogy: rim attempts are to hoops what draw and counter plays are to football. Gates’ crew uses them effectively. But on Sunday, the Tigers were essentially plowing into a stacked box. Meanwhile, MU also missed four point-blank looks on the break and went 1 of 4 on putback attempts. 

That reliance on rim attacks makes sense. Caleb Grill has missed five games with a neck injury. He averages five catch-and-shoot attempts per game – roughly equal to the shortage the Tigers needed to backfill on Sunday. 

Evaluating specific lineups turns up an obvious conclusion: MU’s closing group excelled. 

Trailing 67-57, the quintet popped off an 11-0 run to take a one-point advantage at the 4:17 mark. Down the homestretch, it forced the Illini to take – and convert – tough looks in the half-court. Maybe Bates gave Jakucionis too much cushion for a step-back 3 at the 2:04 mark. And Boswell made a savvy play to draw a foul on Crews with 57 ticks left and put the Illini up 77-75. 

Yet this lineup mostly answered the bell. 

Otherwise, this proved nip and tuck. There were two lineups with Aidan Shaw at the five posted minus-3 scoring margins – early in the first half. There’s also the tandem of Allen and Marshall with a minus-4 margin. But that’s offset by a favorable stretch to start the second half.  

As usual, plus-minus tells us only so much about an individual’s performance. Why is Tony Perkins at minus-3? Well, the Iowa transfer played almost the entire game. He scored 18 points, grabbed six boards, doled out three assists, and swiped three steals. So, Tony wasn’t an issue. 

The same goes for Mitchell. He’s minus-7 at the four-spot because lineups with Shaw as the small-ball five (-5) finished underwater. Mitchell’s roughly 13 minutes as the Tigers’ post option offset it. Likewise, Bates shouldered a heavy playing time but was in the black at combo guard (-1) and on the wing (-2) for the day. 

Those three are also your trifecta, combining for 53 points, 16 rebounds, and eight assists while shooting 16 of 34 from the floor. They did their part. 

Metrics tell us MU did plenty right on Sunday, too.�

The Illini finished with a slight edge on the offensive glass and only one rebound ahead of their expected tally. Yet 17 turnovers meant Illinois bled out five possessions. In the half court, Underwood’s crew underperformed its baseline in ball-screens. Its 30.6 percent clip from long range was also below the season average. 

However, Illinois, which ranks among the best nationally at defending the rim, made sure its length and physicality showed up in the paint. It ran up a healthy free-throw rate for MU – except Mitchell and Trent Pierce missed four in the final three minutes. And that dogged commitment to playing downhill limited chances for Pierce, Jacob Crews and Marques Warrick to hoist up open catch-and-shoots. 

Clichéd as it sounds, the result would likely tip based on a momentum of individual brilliance. 

Jakucionis delivered.