Lineup Performance: Missouri at Auburn

Suspend disbelief for a minute: Missouri had a narrow sliver of opportunity to apply game pressure against Auburn last Saturday.

MU only trailed by 12 points at halftime, and coming out of the locker room, coach Dennis Gates mostly stuck with a group that had narrowed the gap: Tony Perkins, Marques Warrick, Caleb Grill, and Josh Gray. And within the first 90 seconds, the Tigers earned three prime chances to get the margin back into single digits.

Late in the first possession of the half, Allen rolled into post-up against Dylan Cardwell, spun off the Auburn post, and created an easy layup. He missed. Fortunately, Auburn came up empty on its opening trip – an off-target hook shot by Johni Broome that MU used for a secondary break. Warrick bolted ahead to the right wing for a hit-ahead pass and open 3-pointer. It thumped off the iron. OK, but Grill also got a crack at a dagger 3 when MU collected an offensive board. He also clanked a jumper.

That’s when the cliched sliding door slammed shut.

Grill’s miss triggered a run out for Auburn, while in the backcourt, Gray was hit with a flagrant foul while trying to box out Cardwell. Chaney Johnson added a pair of freebies, and a potential 5-0 spurt for MU wound up with Auburn taking a 49-33 lead with 18:30 left.

That’s how slender opportunities can be against elite teams. Instead of trailing by seven, MU watched Auburn trot away for an 84-68 victory. Looking over lineup data only underlines how perfectly the Tigers needed to execute to stay within shouting distance on the SEC favorite’s home floor. 

Like the outing against Alabama State, MU found itself in situations where a group on the floor had too many non-actors on offense. 

Around the 15-minute mark in the first half, Pierce, Allen and Gray shared the floor – a spot-up threat and two bigs with usage rates below 15 percent. Then, Gates inserted Grill as a combo guard. That left Anthony Robinson as the lone on-ball creator. Mercifully, that spell lasted just 18 seconds. 

Yet it’s hard to be too harsh when the subsequent two lineups, who played between the 13:12 and 11:30 marks, conceded a 9-3 spurt that let Auburn get its first genuine separation. Moreover, a rough 84 seconds for Peyton Marshall only saw the lead grow to 11 points. 

Mind you, Missouri was also routinely getting to the rim in the four minutes after the under-16 break, but it missed three attempts When Trent Pierce was fouled on a fourth, he split a pair of free throws. There were also a couple of turnovers by MU for good measure. 

MU produced the kind of balance required in its shot portfolio. The Tigers lofted up 23 3-point attempts and 24 shots at the rim. It posted the second-best free-throw rate (47.3% of the season against Auburn. They simply didn’t convert at anywhere near an efficient enough level to stress Bruce Pearl’s crew.

When assessing the Tigers’ lineups, ignore the top group in the chart. Its handiwork came after Auburn decisively decided the outcome. Instead, look at the lineups I’ve bolded. Those groups were on the floor when the game reached inflection points. 

Perkins, Warrick, and Allen were on the floor while MU whittled down Auburn’s edge over the final four minutes of the first half. Gates added Gray, who had sat with two fouls, to add some brawn to the front line. Grill had also been part of a lineup that closed the half out with some momentum.

But we already recounted what transpired, and MU found itself trailing 51-33 with 18:02 left.

That’s when Gates swapped Bates for Allen, creating this iteration: Perkins, Bates, Grill, Pierce, and Mitchell. Theoretically, that lineup has enough offensive balance and length on the defensive end. 

Instead, it saw Chad Baker-Mazara and Denver Jones bang in guarded step-back 3s on successive possessions. Meanwhile, here’s what happened when the Tigers needed a response:

• 17:31: Pierce missed an open catch-and-shoot 3 from the right slot
• 16:56: Pierce drives for a layup from the top of the key after a chase action
• 16:10: Broome blocked a Mitchell layup during a late-clock isolation
• 15:39: Baker-Mazara stripped Bates on an early-clock drive from the left wing
• 15:30: Grill missed a trail 3 from the logo after a live-ball turnover

Instead of carving into Auburn’s lead, that group let it reach 59-36. MU had mustered just a lone field goal in roughly five minutes. Matters didn’t improve over the next four minutes, either. The Tigers ginned up four quality looks at the rim – three in transition and one after an offensive rebound – and were denied each time by arguably the nation’s top at-rim defense.

If I have one question, it’s the dosage of minutes given to Warrick. Based on lineup data, the Northern Kentucky transfer brings hyper-efficient pop offensively. And while MU’s defense is a bit leakier with him on the floor, neither Bates nor Grill gained traction early. It was a brutal day for Anthony Robinson, too. 

So, why not add Warrick to the mix earlier in the first half? With 11:30 left until the break, MU trailed 20-12. That might have been the moment to see if Ques could jump-start a boggy attack. 

We can (still) easily spot the demarcation between normal and garbage time. Any player with a gold bar was on the court when MU made the outcome look respectable. Otherwise, MU’s key cogs were 18 points worse than Auburn’s.

Regular readers of Study Hall likely know that.

Robinson and Mitchell posted negative game scores, and Bates (2.14) wasn’t much better. Grill still resembled a guy working back from an extended absence. Perkins’s game score (6.71) was primarily driven by contributions outside the scoring column. 

Sometimes, the opposition also crushes their scout. Auburn deserves credit for it. Mitchell routinely found himself driving the ball against Broome and Cardwell from the elbow. Tamar struggled to shake loose. Auburn’s bigs did stellar work playing at the level or hedging on screens to let guards recover and bother Robinson. 

There were also some decisions MU made that raise reasonable questions. For example, the Tigers often opted for straight switching in screens, allowing Auburn’s big men to hunt for mismatches against guards. Under those circumstances, whether you’re using Gray or a small-ball five hardly matters. 

Simply lingering within two possessions of Auburn demands near-perfect game-planning and execution. MU got neither. But plenty of their peers will encounter the same frustration this season. 

The Tigers’ fate rests on whether it can hold serve among a group of teams currently packed together in KenPom’s ratings: Texas, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt and LSU. 

The Bayou Bengals show up on Tuesday, and the Commodores pull into town on Saturday. 

You can excuse a road loss to Auburn. Failing to hold serve at home this week would be a legitimate cause for concern.