Lineup Performance: Missouri vs. Cal

Assuming you’re still suffering whiplash from Missouri’s 98-93 win over Cal on Tuesday, maybe Caleb Grill can loan you a spare neck brace.

With 5:08 left in the first half, Missouri trailed the Bears by one point, and by the 10:55 mark in the second half, the Tigers pulled ahead 65-64. But the 15 minutes in between were, and this is a technical term, a narrow band that also sets the parameters for any assessment of the Tigers’ lineup performance. 

Let’s start by working through this chronologically.

Cal closed the first half on a 17-0 run, but the worst stretch lasted barely two minutes. The Tigers committed three live-ball turnovers that the Bears cashed in for six points. They lost track of two shooters, leading to another half-dozen points. Meanwhile, Mark Mitchell missed chip shots at the rim that could have smothered the Bears surge. 

The chart below shows you who was on the floor for that meltdown: Mitchell, Tamar Bates, Jacob Crews, and Marcus Allen.

If plus-minus guides assessments for individual performance, isolating Crews as a potential culprit is easy. He finished the night at minus-18, including a minus-11 for the period we’re discussing. However, reviewing the tape offers some modest absolution. 

Crews didn’t cough the ball up. Warrick, Bates, and Perkins did. Who overhelped to the midline and gave up open 3-balls? That would be Allen. While Crews’ start has been bumpy, mainly shooting off the catch, he wasn’t a culprit for blunders that let the Bears stretch their lead to 51-35 lead at the break. 

Coming out of the locker room, the Tigers carried a clear directive: get two feet in the paint. I won’t spoil Matt Watkins’ next edition of The Verdict, but the schematic tweak to achieve the objective was straightforward: five-out spacing, a big setting a high ball screen for Anthony Robinson, and then road-grading a path to the rim. 

Sounds rudimentary, doesn’t it? 

Well, Cal had no answers. Its guards are smaller and susceptible to getting bumped off. MU’s big man could flip the screen when a defender went under. As for Robinson, he was also bigger than the defender trailing him. When man-to-man failed, Cal tried matchup zone. Didn’t matter. MU just screened the Bear at the point, and Robinson had an open path to the middle gap.

Every so often, Tamar Bates made a timely cut, pull-up off the bounce, or rim attack. Meanwhile, MU ratcheted up the ball pressure, nuking handoffs and weave action to speed up coach Mark Madsen’s crew. That resulted in rushed shots and turnovers, the ideal kerosene to spark MU’s transition attack. In the process, Mitchell, whose rim finishing has been spotty at times, found easy chances to play direct. 

The only swap Gates made to start the second half was toggling between Josh Gray and Peyton Marshall. In 10:19 of game time, the Tigers outscored Cal 36-13, including a 14-1 run in the opening five minutes of the half. 

Otherwise, MU and Cal spent 25 minutes playing to a draw. Ultimately, MU’s burst (+23) had slightly more juice than Cal’s flurry (+17) earlier in the night. That shows up when parsing individual lineups. 

If you remove the groups on the floor during the period overlapping halftime, the remaining combinations tended to have scoring margins confined to plus-3 or minus-3. After eight games, Gates’ substitution pattern doesn’t loop back to his starting five. In the Tigers’ loss at Memphis, he was critiqued for not sticking with hot hands. That wasn’t the case on Tuesday.

Even when we look at individual performances, a juxtaposition jumps out. We noted Crews, but Mitchell was the small-ball five (-11) when Cal went off. Bates manned the combo guard spot during that spell, which explains his minus-10 mark. Perkins’ minus-15 mark at lead guard was also stained by his time (-6) in those lineups. 

Naturally, the standouts helped drive the Tigers’ comeback. Perusing the trifecta in Study Hall further affirms that Robinson, Bates and Mitchell were the catalysts in that effort. 

Yet we shouldn’t give short shrift to Peyton Marshall (9.46 GS) on the night. The freshman forced a timely steal, made a savvy passing read from the elbow, and converted three tough rim finishes. And for all the laments about Crews, Marques Warrick (8.99 GS) has quietly gained traction, averaging 12.0 points and 2.8 assists over the past five outings. 

From a macro perspective, there are still strong cases to be made that Gates should tinker with his starting five and tweak his sub pattern to curb Crews’ minutes. And with a potentially irked Kansas, which was upset by Creighton, arriving Sunday, there’s potentially heightened urgency around getting off to faster starts and having more reliable shooting on the floor. 

But I suppose there’s something mildly heartening about Tuesday. It’s seeing evidence that MU potentially has enough talent on hand to pull off a great escape – and hopefully not make it a routine predicament