Lineup Performance: Missouri at Tennessee

It’s been a while since Missouri gave us reason to care about the finest margins.

The whiplash of the past decade, where the Tigers were just as likely to finish lower than 140^th in KenPom as they were to make the NCAA tournament, will do that to you.

While the Tigers certainly look like a top-15 outfit, their 85-81 loss at No. 5 Tennessee is a wincing reminder of how slim the margin is between really good and elite. In the immediate aftermath, it was easy to pin the outcome on the Volunteers shooting 66.7 percent from long range. 

And that observation isn’t without merit. 

But when you dig through the lineups and return to the tape, it’s not just an aberrational shooting night that explains when the Vols held serve at Thompson-Boling Arena. Coach Rick Barnes found a schematic edge to exploit. His top-ranked defense ratcheted into top gear. And the Tigers made just enough mistakes for the Vols to open a 14-point lead that sustained them through a late MU surge.

As expected, Tennessee handcuffed Tamar Bates and Mark Mitchell. Fortunately, MU’s depth let it tap other sources of offense. Tony Perkins went on an 8-0 run. Marques Warrick added a 7-0 jag. Jacob Crews drilled a corner 3. Freshmen T.O. Barrett and Peyton Marshall each chipped in a bucket. And Trent Pierce closed the half by finishing a tricky reverse after attacking from the corner. 

Like Mizzou, the Volunteers found their footing after slogging through the opening eight minutes. UT got that traction by punishing MU with slips from pick-and-rolls and occasional breakdowns by the Tigers when switching off-ball screens. The value of UT’s shots (1.12 PPS) trumped the Tigers, but eight turnovers leeched possessions. 

But Rick Barnes is smart. He saw those miscues. And it was easy to see MU selling out to prevent Chaz Lanier and Jordan Gainey from using floppy action and staggered screens to curl open. Instead of dialing up other actions, he simply had his guards keep running the same thing – until MU made a mistake. 

And because Tennessee is elite, modest slip-ups get magnified. Jacob Crews matched up with the wrong guy in transition. It let Igor Milicic walk into a 3-ball. Tamar Bates was a millisecond behind Lanier running off staggers, and the wing curled into a catch-and-shoot 3. In another early-clock situation, Perkins and Grill lost track of Zeigler, who lifted from the weak-side corner for an open 3 in the slot. And twice, on-ball defenders opened their stance, allowing Zeigler easy access to the middle gap. 

Yet MU also spent four minutes landing counterpunches after the Vols pulled ahead 46-44 at the 15:27 mark. The Tigers routinely got to the rim, too, but Felix Okpara and Cade Phillips proved able deterrents at the cup. The operating room Warrick and Perkins exploited in the first half was gone – and the Tigers bogged down while UT steadily opened a 14-point gap. 

Sometimes, you see subtle shifts in play calls based on the lineup on the floor, but that wasn’t the case Wednesday. The Tigers ran delay sets to get Mitchell drives at the elbow. They ran high pick-and-rolls for Perkins. There were some double-ball screens for Warrick. UT simply ratcheted up its defense. When MU started trimming into the lead, it resulted from MU finally getting chances to push on secondary breaks.

This is all a way of saying that when push came to shove, Tennessee executed in a way you’d expect from a top-five squad. 

What is notable, though, is the lineup most would expect to thrive was the one UT feasted on. Perkins, Bates, Grill, Mitchell and Gray finished the night at minus-11 in 3:24 of action. For example, it allowed the Vols to go on an 8-2 spurt in 70 seconds. Grill didn’t box out Phillips, allowing a putback. Lanier drilled a guarded 3 in Mitchell’s face. And then there was the 3-pointer where Bates trailed too far behind Lanier. 

Eight minutes later, the same group conceded a 7-2 spurt. How? Mitchell fouled Milicic after allowing a face cut. Perkins fouled Lanier by reaching in after a late closeout. And Gray didn’t recover back in time during an empty-side PNR that let Okpara roll for a lob dunk and foul.

Boxing out, seeing ball and man, rotating on time, and locking and trailing: fundamentals that must be on point if you want to swipe a road upset. On Wednesday, one of MU’s most common groups wasn’t nearly buttoned up enough. 

It’s also why I don’t get worked up over matters like MU going 19 of 29 from the free-throw line. If we account for Bates not getting a second free throw after missing one-and-ones, the Tigers went 14 of 25 from the stripe in between halftime and garbage time. That is not good. Yet MU entered Knoxville shooting 71.8 percent for the season. Based on that proficiency, the Tigers leaked four points – and missed out on overtime.

Still, the Vols made five more 3-pointers than you’d expect based on its 30 percent clip for the season. And as you saw, a trusted lineup made too many mistakes.

When you account for Barnes’ play-calling and tally up MU’s miscues, it’s easy to see how Bates can go for 22 points but also finish minus-26 at combo guard. Grill couldn’t shed the shackles Tennessee slapped on him, and he often shared the floor with Bates. That makes a minus-17 performance on the wing understandable. 

As noted above, Perkins found the going more challenging in the second half on the offensive end. Still, he put together a quality floor game with five boards and five assists while tracking Lanier during certain stretches. 

This was always going to be a tough matchup for Mitchell against an imposing frontcourt, and sure enough, his minutes as a small-ball five (-10) bore that out. Aside from one rim attack, Pierce (-6) didn’t find an entry point offensively. And trying to steal some minutes from Marcus Allen (-8) as a backstop didn’t quite pan out.

But look at the rest of the chart. Reserves like Crews (+6), Warrick (+3), and Barrett (+0) helped MU at the margins. And the Tigers’ bench outscored the Vols’ backups by 23 points — more than offsetting tamped down output from Mitchell and Grill.

And if Tennessee had merely been typical from 3-point range, it was a performance that might have seen the Tigers traipse home with another elite victory on its CV.