Welcome everyone to The Verdict, Preseason Edition. In this series we’re going to be looking at a host of topics in the lead up to the much anticipated 26-27 Tigers Basketball season. Instead of going through the nitty-gritty of every single player as I’ve done in past Player Previews, I’m taking a bit of a step back and looking at some larger scale topics for Mizzou’s team. We’re assuming every fifth year senior is eligible for the purpose of simplicity. In this installment we’re going to be looking at Mizzou’s shooting questions.
For seemingly half a decade now one of the top concerns going into a new season has been whether the Mizzou Basketball roster is built to shoot it well enough. Honestly, if you look at the numbers – and we will – it’s not a bad question. A valid concern, if you will. But is it something you actually need to worry about?
In four seasons at the helm in Columbia Dennis Gates’s Tigers have connected on long range, three-point attempts at clips of: 36.0%; 31.9%; 36.7% and 35.0%. This is in four successive seasons. The one poor outlier isn’t hard to spot, or to guess in which season it happened. When Mizzou’s roster was ravaged with injuries, they shot the ball poorly. We all remember that well. When the roster stays largely intact though, they shoot it pretty well. In fact, despite all the potential causes of variance their finishes under those parameters have all been between 35 and 37% from long range. That’s not an elite number. That’s not a mediocre number. That’s a good number. And much like we discussed before last season, I’m betting they’ll land around there again.
When we tally up the individual three point numbers of each player that will make up the 2026-2027 roster, I do understand the concern:
Their overall numbers – every shot any of them have taken in DI combined with the final season of AAU stats for their three freshman – the 32.8% mark isn’t impressive. Even if we were to cherry-pick each player’s one best season and disregard everything else, they still only come in at 34.7%. Both of those numbers are well below Mizzou’s recent standard. Consider me undeterred.
Sure, in support of my argument I could point to the handful of players who saw their three-point numbers explode, be it Marques Warrick, D’Moi Hodge or Jayden Stone. I find that to be superficial and prone to a lack of repeatability. Or selective choices. What about the guys who didn’t see an individual improvement after all? Either way, it’s unpersuasive to me.
Instead, I’ve meticulously tallied every single career possession (broken down by play-type) of a Mizzou Tiger this year and the prior four years. This includes both the numbers they accumulated as a Tiger and those in their careers prior to the relevant season. By doing so I was able to track their cumulative rate of change to tease out how joining Dennis Gates’s program affects anything, if at all.
What we see here is a demonstrated, across-the-board improvement in points per possession no matter how the jump shots arise. The Dennis Gates iteration of four years of Tiger players collectively saw a 7.4% improvement in spot up efficiency over their numbers played for other programs, for example. In each of these key areas Dennis Gates coaxed more jump shooting efficiency out of the group than ever before. That’s real. While certainly not every jump shot is a 3-point attempt we observe that those attempts saw a 3.5% improvement over career. We can’t simply say that Mizzou will shoot the 3-ball at a 36.3% rate this year (32.8% career + 3.5% improvement). That’s a bit too ham-handed to say with confidence. But would it surprise you since every semi-healthy Gates team finished between 35-37%? It wouldn’t raise an eyebrow from this scribe. Moreover you observe a slightly healthier shot diet in the usage column trading out tough shots off the bounce for more shots in rhythm off the catch.
Moreso, we can apply those change rates to this current roster in the given categories. We’re left with a profile that resembles something of a mediocre team in shooting terms.
*Shading indicates quality in PPP. Dark Green is best. Dark Red is worst. Lighter shades are in the middle.
That’s a group that’s pretty decent off the bounce but a little lacking off the catch. And you know what, that’s just fine! Gates’ roster for this upcoming season isn’t built to be a team that’s reliant on long-range bombing to win games. It’s a team build on needing just enough outside shooting to allow their ground game to pummel opponents into oblivion. This Tiger team isn’t a Mike Leach Air-Raid attack – RIP to the G.O.A.T. It’s a bruising group led by Tom Osborne and Tommie Frazier. All that’s required is the threat of retribution for overplaying Options 1, 2 and 3. I’m confident that per usual, Dennis Gates will summon that out of his crew.
And if you don’t take me at my word that rim-pressuring lineups can do very well with non-elite shooting characteristics, you can peruse last year’s numbers at your leisure. Elite size won when complemented by nothing more than capable-enough shooting.
This is all to say that yes, concerns are reasonable. This team does not have the makings of an elite shooting bunch from three-point range. Despite that admission I’m firmly convinced the historical data suggests this team can be good enough. Especially in the context of who they are and how I expect them to play.