Lineup Performance: Missouri vs. Howard

Once the horn sounds, I go into an Excel file and produce three charts: a substitution pattern, lineup breakdowns and position performance. Collectively, they quantify game flow and give me context for how Missouri’s players performed at various spots. In past seasons, I’ve shared them on Slack with Sam Snelling and Matt Watkins, and sometimes, they help Sam while he’s cranking out Study Hall. Now, you get to see them in cleaned-up form. 

Let’s dive right in and flip the order. 

What do you notice first? The struggles for Caleb Grill on the wing and Jacob Crews as a stretch four. Now, these scoring margins aren’t entirely separate from lineups. The other four guys on the floor matter. However, Crews and Grill each posted the worst game score (-2.49) in the Tigers’ win over the Bison, which only underscores what we see in the table below. 

Through two games, Grill is 0 of 7 from 3-point range and owns a 42.5 turnover percentage. On Friday, coach Dennis Gates and the staff kept giving him rope through the first half. But they tugged hard when Grill airmailed a 3-pointer early in the second half while trying to draw a foul. He went to the bench at 17:45 and didn’t return.

As for Crews, he’s missed all three of the 3-balls he’s hoisted up, and if he’s not checking in and immediately improving the Tigers’ spacing, the case for extended minutes can be thin. Mark Mitchell is still on the roster, and — as you’ve likely picked up on — some supposed depth pieces are flashing early. 

Conversely, Marques Warrick graded poorly at combo guard (-3) but posted a solid game score (6.67) on Friday night. That suggests there were some lineups where his peers struggled. You can say the same of the 14 minutes and 36 seconds Tamar Bates spent on the wing (-1) while landing in Sam’s trifecta for Study Hall. 

More importantly, the position performance data underscores the nuance we need to evaluate performances. Tony Perkins’ offensive output lagged again, but he rebounded well for his position, dished a couple of assists, and notched several steals, helping MU to a plus-14 margin in nearly 24 minutes of run time at point guard. It applies to guys offering spot duty, like Josh Gray, who yanked down six boards in 12:38 of playing time as a traditional post.

Then, there are the freshmen. MU was plus-11 with Annor Boateng on the wing and plus-7 during Marcus Allen’s spot duty at the four. Oh, we can’t forget Ant Robinson, either. MU was good with him at either ball-handling spot.

Again, I would have preferred MU avoid such a profound off night shooting, but even the individual metrics tell us this was — absent clanking jumpers — a productive outing for most of the roster.

While we all grew increasingly frustrated by MU’s futility from long range, Gates calmly achieved an aim for most of his peers in this setting: mixing and matching. Below, you’ll see the scoring margin for each lineup he used and how long they were on the floor. Guess how many groups he used more than once? Just one — his starting five. 

While toggling and tinkering, the Tigers turned off the spigot inside the arc, turned them over 25 percent of the time, and laid siege to the rim. Along the way, Gates used a small-ball five for more than 27 minutes of action. Annor Boateng was productive in his first start, and Marcus Allen stayed on the floor during crunch time. 

Had expected shooting performances been in the offing, we’d be focusing on those plot points instead of feeling the nagging trauma from Jackson State’s rally a year ago. In other words, it was a pretty rote outing against a decent low-major. 

But we aren’t, because as the sub pattern shows, there was a span in the middle of the second half where the game pressure ratcheted up. Guess when it started? Once Crews checked in for Marcus Allen.

Here’s a rundown of the Tigers’ possessions with Crews on the floor:

• 10:53: Tamar Bates turnover via offensive foul
• 10:10: Jacob Crews missed floater on the left block
• 9:22: Jacob Crews missed 3-pointer
• 9:10: 30-second timeout by Missouri
• 8:51: Marques Warrick missed 3-pointer
• 8:31: Tamar Bates missed 3-pointer
• 8:15: Jacob Crews missed 3-pointer
• 7:39: Marques Warrick makes layup

When Crews left the game, the Bison had whittled a 14-point lead down to seven. Is it harsh to single the UT-Martin transfer out? Perhaps. Collectively, MU became too infatuated with pulling from long range. But again, the top bullet point on Crews’ CV is burying catch-and-shoots, particularly in tight windows. When he checked in, a couple of those makes would have snuffed out Howard’s lingering hopes of a road upset.

Instead, you can see just a few rows below that Allen’s return and assertiveness around the rim spurred the Tigers on an 11-0 to finally put the game out of reach over the last 3:33 of action. Yet he’s not alone. We saw Trent Pierce go on a mini-run at Memphis while functioning as a stretch four. Aidan Shaw also popped at moments. Now, Allen has some tangible moments he can latch onto for early confidence.

A couple of weeks ago, we openly wondered which member of that trio might get buried on the bench. Instead, all three have amassed some evidence for extended PT as Mitchell’s understudy. 

Lastly, I create an aggregate table for position performance, which becomes less prone to volatility as games stack up. Usually, I don’t put much stock in what says until mid-December, when the Tigers have played 10 or 11 games. But I’ll show you the snapshot after two games.

Bates’ performance on the wing might be worrying if we didn’t know he was averaging 15.0 points and 3.5 rebounds while posting a 142.7 offensive rating. It could be a case of the players around him really struggling. Optimizing Tamar, which includes boosting his usage beyond 18.2 percent, might require tasking the senior with more time as the secondary ball-handler. 

You can use the same lens to view Warrick’s performances. He’s 0 of 3 from deep, but his efficiency (105.2 ORTG) remains solid enough. We’re witnessing a heavy-usage player from a mid-major conference settling into a supporting role for a power-conference program. 

Our appraisal of Grill, however, should be less generous. His individual struggles overlay a brutal margin for MU while he plays the wing. We can point to several turnovers against Memphis that helped jumpstart a surge into the lead. Last night, he had another pair of turnovers to go with missing three 3-pointers. Even sliding him down to play the four in small-ball configurations (-7) has gone poorly. 

Lastly, there’s Crews’ minus-8 in 4:32 as a stretch four, which you hope is a funky start as he scales up his game from the Ohio Valley Conference. But as noted earlier, it’s ill-timed with Grill’s woes. 

Yet, seeing the top six Tigers on that chart stirs some modest optimism. You can build a decent lineup using Perkins, Robinson, Bates, Mitchell, and Gray. From there, Gates could insert Shaw to play smaller and faster. Next, you see underclassmen like Pierce, Allen and Boateng, who have excelled in short bursts. That’s a nine-man rotation — one that lacks steady shooting. 

The faster one of Grill, Crews or Warrick sights in their jumper, the better off Mizzou will be.