Assessing Transfer Portal Needs: A look at the Mizzou Basketball Depth Chart

With the Mizzou Basketball season wrapped up, after a disappointing NCAA Tournament loss to Drake, it’s the time of year where talk of the Transfer Portal heats up. But you can’t go after portal targets unless you’ve assessed your own needs. So what we’ll do here is talk about the existing roster, who’s leaving, who’s likely to return, who might bolt for the portal themselves, and what holes are left to fill.

Let’s start with who can’t return

There are five players and one walk-on who have expiring eligibility out of an 18 person roster, including three walk-ons. Here’s a quick look at who’s leaving:

• Tamar Bates, CG / Wing
  • 13.3 ppg, 64.5% of minutes
• Caleb Grill, Wing
  • 13.7 ppg, 55.7% of minutes
• Tony Perkins, PG
  • 8.7 ppg, 54.4% of minutes
• Marques Warrick, CG
  • 6.6 ppg, 32.6% of minutes
• Josh Gray, Post
  • 3.2 ppg, 37.5% of minutes
• Jeremy Sanchez, CG
  • 0.2 ppg, 0.4% of minutes

Total: 51.02% of points and 49.03% of minutes, 47.1% of starts.

Analysis: No offense to Sanchez, but the top 5 are the key losses. Grill and Bates were both key players in the rotation, both averaging over 13 points per game even if their production was inconsistent. Tony Perkins and Marques Warrick were cogs in the ball handling department, and Josh Gray was the Tigers rebounding and defense extraordinaire.

Who can we expect back?

Missouri didn’t sign a big recruiting class in the fall. The only additions were point guard Aaron Rowe and post Nicholas Randle. Neither project into big immediate roles, although both could contend to be part of the rotation. The rest of the rotation is a combination of players who played a huge role this past season, and players who project to step into bigger roles next year. Let’s start with the former:

• Mark Mitchell, CF
  • 13.9 ppg, 66.9% of minutes
• Anthony Robinson, PG
  • 9.0 ppg, 55.6% of minutes
• Jacob Crews, Wing / CF
  • 5.6 ppg, 31.2% of minutes
• Trent Pierce, Wing / CF
  • 6.7 ppg, 41.2% of minutes

All four of these players played more than 30% of the minutes and started 83 games (48.8%). Mitchell started every game he appeared in (33) and Robinson started 31 of 33. Both are expected back and will be counted on to be starters again. Crews has announced he’ll be coming back, but I wouldn’t expect his role to grow much more beyond what he was this year, hopefully just with a little bit more consistency. The question, if there is one, might lay with Pierce. A 6’10 wing, Pierce started 16 games in a row during conference play but his play ebbed and flowed. When Pierce was on, he unlocked another level of the Mizzou offense. But his struggles at the free throw line spilled over into other parts of his game and his minutes became as inconsistent as his shooting.

I don’t think Missouri will be pushing Pierce out the door. Quite the opposite, actually. I’m just leaving open the possibility that Pierce might look outside of Columbia for a reset on his career. He has NBA potential and he’s shown flashes, I’m sure he would have options if he chose to enter the transfer portal. Where I would be stunned if any of the other three players would enter the portal, I wouldn’t be completely shocked if Pierce opted for a change.

Now the latter, players who can expect to step into a larger role after being a supreme reserve this year:

• Marcus Allen, CF
  • 2.6 ppg, 17.4% of minutes
• Annor Boateng, Wing
  • 1.9 ppg, 7.9% of minutes
• T.O. Barrett, PG / CG
  • 1.9 ppg, 7.3% of minutes
• Peyton Marshall, Post
  • 1.0 ppg, 7.2% of minutes

All of these four freshmen saw some playing time this year, but not much. Allen was the most consistent defender which is why he saw the most action. For Allen he needs to clean up his ball handling on offense, and find a way to be more of a threat on that end. I’d recommend he spend the next 6 months getting up a ton of jump shots.

The ceiling is very high on both of the guards, Boateng and Barrett. Boateng comes in with more recruiting accolades, but his shot was inconsistent and his ball handling was questionable. He was also limited last summer with a knee issue, slowing his development. A full season and an offseason with little pressure on him will do wonders, and I’d expect to see a sizable leap into the rotation next year.

The same can be said for Barrett, who showed competitive defense and aggression on drives in sparse minutes throughout the year. The questions Barrett needs to answer are in regard to his decision making with the ball in his hands, and his outside shooting.

Marshall is a victim of the simple fact that developing bigs is a tough process. Missouri still likes his potential but he’s still working on his body, and how to use a lower center of gravity around the rim.

I’ll also add that redshirting Trent Burns might end up working out for Trent. The staff really likes his potential but an opportunity to build up his body was a necessary step.

Question Marks?

I guess you could put Pierce here, but I wouldn’t move him into question mark status just yet. For now we have no indication he’s on his way out, so until then we’ll keep him above this line.

The only real question mark right now appears to be Aidan Shaw. And only because Shaw has seen his minutes dwindle as other’s minutes increased. It’s always a numbers game, and the root cause is Shaw has never quite developed the way anyone has hoped. He’s still an unreal athlete, and a capable rotational player. But for a team with ample options at the combo forward, Shaw had trouble getting to and staying on the floor. So the question remains for him, does he want to come back for his final season of eligibility with no guarantee of minutes?

There are a hundred schools which would love to have a smaller, hyper-athletic post player like Shaw in their rotation. Just not many at the high major level.

I don’t think there are any players currently on the roster who will get pushed out by the Missouri staff. All indications are that everyone in the building loves Aidan, and what’s best for Aidan. The only question then is if Aidan thinks the best path for him is still in Columbia.

What will Mizzou be looking for in the portal?

Quite simply: Production.

There are two to three key spots: Point Guard or Combo Guard who can score. A post who can guard and rebound. A wing who can shoot.

The first two are necessities, the last more of a want. Missouri is losing two of the best shooters in Grill and Bates, and Perkins who is good with the ball in his hands. A critique of this roster has been ‘a lot of good players but no real dominant force on offense’. For a while, when Grill was on fire, he was enough to give them that dominant force. But if the threes were falling, things were more laborious. Mitchell filled in, Robinson has streaks, but Missouri needs someone they can count on. They need shot creation, and they need scoring consistency to pair with Robinson and Mitchell.

With Gray moving on, and the growth of their in house post options uncertain, Missouri will be in the market for another big. There will be good options out there.

Then on the wing, it’s not really needed but another shooter couldn’t hurt.