No offense to AJ Clark, but scouting reports don’t demand hard close-outs when he spots up.
The junior has only made 20.8 percent of 3-point attempts in his career. In fact, he only canned 3 of 14 open attempts last season. Was it ideal that Missouri’s Mark Mitchell lost track of Clark on the first possession of Sunday’s tilt? No. But the forward’s scramble to contest was respectable.
The result? Clark watched his shot bank home – and foreshadowed a half where the Keydets’ tough shot-making could leave the impression that the Tigers were floundering defensively for a second consecutive outing. But while MU wasn’t faultless, the result — a 106-68 romp — offered enough evidence to ease some short-term anxiety.
At least until Minnesota pulls into town for the high-major test of the campaign.
Before we look over the usual charts, let’s do some accounting. By my math, the Keydets knocked down eight shots that I would describe as tough during normal time. For example, VMI hit two threes on plays where a Missouri defender, who would have contested the shot, slipped. Meanwhile, another three-ball resulted from a broken floor after MU couldn’t come up with a forced turnover.
That’s nine points off fluky plays. Clark also banked in a second contested three-pointer early in the second half. And Tan Yildizoglu drilled a deep triple with T.O. Barrett’s hand in his face and three seconds left on the shot clock.
Voila, you can chalk up 18 of VMI’s points to plays where the quality of MU’s defense isn’t a chief variable. Toss in a couple of tough two-pointers, and nearly a third of the Keydets’ output, including 16 points in the first half, had little to do with the quality of guarding.
That said, I understand why teeth were set on edge when MU only led by 10 points at the break. In real time, it certainly looked like another gaffe-filled effort on the defensive end. But once VMI’s shooting normalized after halftime, MU didn’t need much exertion to stretch its lead and usher in garbage time with roughly 10 minutes to play.
Reviewing the substitution pattern also reinforces that MU didn’t exactly bolt out of the gate.
The opening five minutes also provide a reasonable critique of coach Dennis Gates’ dabbling with jumbo lineups. While that size should theoretically allow MU to control the glass, make finishing at the rim hell, and pound the ball inside offensively, there are also mismatches an opponent can exploit, which you can see in the clips below.
Admittedly, the Tigers’ injury-shortened bench could be an obvious factor. Without Trent Pierce and Annor Boateng, the wing rotation is essentially Jacob Crews and Jayden Stone sliding down from combo guard – and neither boasts a track record of reliably locking and trailing shooters.
Yet the chart makes it plain to see that MU took control after roughly eight minutes, using a 13-3 run in the middle of the half to assert itself. The surge underscored MU’s obvious approach to the proceedings: put Mark Mitchell in the middle of a zone and let him eat VMI alive, set Sebastian Mack loose to assault the rim on secondary breaks, and convert takeaways into runouts.
Consider: Of the 56 possessions MU amassed in normal time, 24 came in transition, including eight where the Tigers had a chance to turn live-ball turnovers into rim attacks. Had the ball-handling remained steady in the closing minutes of the half, Gates’ bunch might have stretched the lead to 20 points by the break.
MU made another critical change after Friday’s defensive clunker: it curbed the amount of time Barrett and Stone, who have each struggled at times defensively and in valuing the ball as creators, shared the floor. Against SEMO, lineups featuring that tandem logged 7:48 of floor time and posted a minus-14 scoring margin. On Sunday, they were paired together for just 4:39 of action, and almost all of it occurred in garbage time.
What we do see is that the lineups that struggled often featured Barrett as the lead guard. But when we look at Barrett’s defensive metrics, his performance – allowing 0.842 PPP – checks in right around the median for Division-I players, per Synergy Sports data. The likelier problem culprits are an astronomical turnover rate (32.4%) and running reserve-laden groups that lack a proven source of scoring punch.
Was it a conscious choice to separate Barrett and Stone? I can’t say. But if there’s one perverse advantage to Gates’ early-season tinkering, it’s finding and stress-testing these kinds of combinations – even if his risk tolerance is far greater than ours. And again, a bench with only 10 available bodies also imposes some constraints.
Whatever the motivation, the result was that almost every Tiger ended up in positive plus-minus. The only exceptions: Jacob Crews and the 43 seconds he spent as a hybrid forward in garbage time, Jayden Stone’s stint on the wing in normal time, and Jevon Porter’s time as a post with the game still up for grabs.
If Friday was a step backward, Sunday served as a step forward, albeit a tepid one. One performance alone isn’t a reason for panic, but I don’t want to absolve the Tigers of the issues we saw on defense, corralling 50-50 balls, or valuing the rock. However, MU asserted itself efficiently and leaned on its strengths. The rotation still feels provisional, but Robinson and Mitchell are steadily affirming their places atop it.
Put simply, it looked like a team with continuity instead of a group groping for answers. Integrating Boateng and Pierce would only help, but it doesn’t sound like their returns are imminent. The size, system overlap and shooting for Minnesota pose real challenges, and while thumping VMI was a necessary stabilizer, Wednesday will give us a better sense of whether MU’s progress is durable.